← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 58% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.24 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 19% | 21% | 5.09 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Marios Vrousai · Willem II Tilburg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · AZ |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
| 78' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days |
| 207.00 |
| 1637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 5.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1472.48 | 1680.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.67 | 48.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |