← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 82% | 79% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.82 | value: +11% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 8% | 9% | 11.79 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 39' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | 🟨 | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1849.00 |
| 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 4.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1497.95 | 1828.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.46 | -45.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 2.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 27.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 24.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 9.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.85 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |