← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 67% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.57 | value: +9% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 10% | 7.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 175.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1605.57 | 1449.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.36 | 14.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 26.54 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |