← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| -4.00 |
| -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1392.11 | 1546.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.53 | 47.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.28 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |