← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 40% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 34% | 33% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 17' | 🟨 | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jizz Hornkamp · SC Heerenveen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · SC Heerenveen |
| 73' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 73' | 🟥 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1174.00 |
| 997.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1485.83 | 1511.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.40 | 4.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |