← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 91% | 84% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 12% | 14.58 | value: +82% |
| NAC Breda win | 3% | 4% | 38.12 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dorian Dervite · NAC Breda |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Gervane Kastaneer · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | 🟨 | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Erik Palmer-Brown · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 33 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 412.00 |
| 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.75 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1826.45 | 1394.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.62 | -18.10 |
| eye test v1 | 1.80 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 50.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.36 | — |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |