← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 60% | 51% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 31% | 4.65 | value: +42% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 19% | 18% | 5.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 51' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jesper Drost · Heracles |
| 60' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 78' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 230.00 | 1167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1489.51 | 1504.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.11 | -4.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |