← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 38% | 38% | 2.57 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 34% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Giovanni Troupee · ADO Den Haag |
| 62' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 81' | 🟥 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1840.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1501.54 | 1497.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.69 | 44.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |