← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 32% | 38% | 3.02 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · FC Groningen |
| 34' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mo El Hankouri · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 254.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1524.19 | 1557.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.68 | -8.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |