← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 82% | 73% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | 8.60 | value: +25% |
| Heracles win | 7% | 13% | 13.21 | value: +67% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 223.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 5.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1472.37 | 1843.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.49 | -20.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 2.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 23.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 9.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 10.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.80 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |