← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pelle Clement · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 983.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1506.34 | 1484.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.75 | 39.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |