← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.42 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 15% | 6.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 25' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 33' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 47' | 🟨 | Pele Van Anholt · NAC Breda |
| 54' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 191.00 | 1621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 5.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1402.59 | 1666.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.16 | 33.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| state index | -0.48 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |