← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 38% | 45% | 2.52 | value: +12% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 35% | 29% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 25' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 30' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
| 59' | ⚽ | Timo Letschert · FC Utrecht |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | 🟥 | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolas Gavory · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timo Letschert · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟥 | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 64.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1483.34 | 1605.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.04 | -18.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 25.82 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |