← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 69% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.19 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 10% | 18% | 9.33 | value: +67% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 916.00 | 1374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1428.00 | 1710.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.90 | -19.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 1.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 19.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.00 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |