← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +5% |
| Heracles win | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 62' | 🟨 | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wout Droste · Heracles |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 89' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1828.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1486.25 | 1484.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.91 | -31.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |