← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 37% | 34% | 2.65 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 37% | 2.82 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · Willem II Tilburg |
| 35' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · FC Groningen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marios Vrousai · Willem II Tilburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sergio Padt · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 185.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1499.55 | 1512.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.89 | 3.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |