← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 53% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 20% | 22% | 4.74 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ali Mukhtar · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 307.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1560.92 | 1503.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.50 | -8.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |