← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 67% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.73 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 12% | 7.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1605.57 | 1484.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.76 | 11.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |