← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 25% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · AZ |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Sherel Constancio Floranus · AZ |
| 66' | 🟨 | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 970.00 | 1609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 5.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1515.03 | 1646.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.03 | 4.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |