← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 50% | 58% | 1.95 | value: +13% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 26% | 22% | 3.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 23' | 🟨 | Clint Essers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 55' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 74' | ⚽ | Lars Hutten · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Áron Dobos · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1147.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1389.27 | 1586.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.60 | -12.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.20 | 27.03 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |