← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 53% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 23% | 26% | 4.21 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1367.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1701.43 | 1883.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.14 | 7.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.86 | 2.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 68.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.40 | 24.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.13 | 2.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 9.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 11.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.20 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 25.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |