← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.04 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ouasim Bouy · PEC Zwolle |
| 16' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Alexander Merkel · Heracles |
| 55' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jesper Drost · Heracles |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pelle Clement · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 209.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1515.51 | 1463.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.58 | 19.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |