← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 36% | 38% | 2.72 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Melvyn Lorenzen · ADO Den Haag |
| 50' | ⚽ | Gervane Kastaneer · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 177.00 | 1819.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1419.01 | 1486.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.41 | -3.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |