← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +14% |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 22% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 22' | ⚽ | Pol Llonch · Willem II Tilburg |
| 85' | 🟥 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marios Vrousai · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1474.15 | 1429.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.85 | 19.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |