← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 88% | 77% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 16% | 11.20 | value: +77% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 4% | 7% | 25.46 | value: +87% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 14' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 16' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Pelle van Amersfoort · AFC Ajax |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · SC Heerenveen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordy Bruijn · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 384.00 | 963.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.58 | 4.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1891.79 | 1518.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.65 | 0.15 |
| eye test v1 | 2.29 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| league points | 46.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.36 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 10.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.24 | 23.19 |
| state index | 2.33 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |