← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.27 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 15% | 20% | 6.23 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 56' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 76' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 49.00 | 1359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1440.13 | 1724.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.92 | -6.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 22.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 24.27 | 25.59 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |