← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 44% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.77 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · FC Groningen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · FC Groningen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 232.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1498.85 | 1519.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.27 | -0.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |