← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 72% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +6% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 12% | 7.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 17' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 36' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marcus Edwards · SBV Excelsior |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 67' | ⚽ | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jerdy Schouten · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 292.00 | 900.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 10.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1567.03 | 1421.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.84 | -6.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |