← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.06 | value: +12% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 17% | 6.43 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 1786.00 | 1332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1502.34 | 1712.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.55 | 4.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 2.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 19.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 22.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |