← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 47% | 2.59 | value: +21% |
| NAC Breda win | 35% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 14' | 🟥 | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 27' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · SC Heerenveen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟥 | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 60' | 🟨 | Greg Leigh · NAC Breda |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · NAC Breda |
| 70' | 🟨 | Warner Hahn · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 32 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 143.00 | 934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1412.43 | 1523.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.63 | 8.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |