← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 31% | 33% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 43' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 873.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1438.76 | 1502.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.46 | -28.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |