← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Emil Bergstrom · FC Utrecht |
| 26' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oussama Tannane · FC Utrecht |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · FC Utrecht |
| 69' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lukas Görtler · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 928.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1533.09 | 1618.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.35 | 11.83 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |