← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 75% | 81% | 1.27 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.32 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 9% | 5% | 10.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Lars Hutten · Fortuna Sittard |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jan-Arie van der Heijden · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ahmed El Messaoudi · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1325.00 | 1105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1756.95 | 1377.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.66 | 21.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 35.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.12 | 23.52 |
| state index | 1.54 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |