← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.06 | value: +11% |
| NAC Breda win | 17% | 17% | 5.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 14.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1445.31 | 1409.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.57 | 1.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |