← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 80% | 78% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.51 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 7% | 9% | 13.70 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Denis Mahmudov · SBV Excelsior |
| 39' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 57' | 🟨 | Thomas Ouwejan · AZ |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 23 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1566.00 | 866.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1632.99 | 1442.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.59 | -7.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.46 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |