← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 29% | 37% | 3.29 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 18' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 32' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vurnon Anita · Willem II Tilburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 135.00 | 1777.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1475.51 | 1482.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.68 | -14.18 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |