← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 60% | 66% | 1.62 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.18 | fair |
| Heracles win | 17% | 16% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 10' | 🟨 | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 20' | ⚽ | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 99.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1609.26 | 1516.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.57 | -26.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |