← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.66 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
| 17' | ⚽ | Atakan Akkaynak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 39' | 🟥 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Willem II Tilburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · SC Heerenveen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 0 | Corners | 14 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 129.00 | 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1496.66 | 1511.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.93 | 9.57 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |