← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 62% | 63% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.44 | value: +8% |
| NAC Breda win | 17% | 13% | 5.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 13' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 16' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · NAC Breda |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 184.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1499.55 | 1406.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.71 | 3.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |