← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 86% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 11% | 12.00 | value: +29% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 3% | 3% | 31.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 21' | ⚽ | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | ⚽ | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 19 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 335.00 | 1765.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1857.22 | 1490.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.20 | -26.95 |
| eye test v1 | 2.35 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.97 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.62 | — |
| state index | 2.18 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |