← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 71% | 68% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.15 | value: +28% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 14% | 11% | 7.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 22' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 30' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pol Llonch · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1552.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 4.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1642.18 | 1472.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.17 | -14.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |