← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 43% | 50% | 2.23 | value: +12% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 35' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 44' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rasmus Thelander · Vitesse |
| 87' | 🟨 | Aras Özbiliz · Willem II Tilburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Eduardo · Vitesse |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Lewis · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days | 116.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1487.00 | 1569.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.92 | 12.01 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |