← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 52% | 56% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.66 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 21% | 22% | 4.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 18' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · PEC Zwolle |
| 24' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 55' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 57' | 🟨 | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nick Kuipers · ADO Den Haag |
| 84' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 541.00 | 1757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1445.26 | 1479.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.37 | -29.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |