← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 84% | 79% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.07 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 5% | 10% | 18.65 | value: +81% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Daan Klomp · NAC Breda |
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Jethro Mashart · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 54' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 115.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1410.07 | 1853.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.97 | 31.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 2.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.97 |
| league points | 8.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 15.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 23.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 10.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.66 |
| state index | -0.60 | 2.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |