← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 43% | 49% | 2.23 | value: +9% |
| Heracles win | 31% | 27% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 31' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ahmed El Messaoudi · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1083.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1495.17 | 1520.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.08 | -25.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |