← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 56% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 18% | 4.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Janis Blaswich · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alexander Merkel · Heracles |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bart Nieuwkoop · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 1290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1530.73 | 1697.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | 3.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |