← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 85% | 78% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 15% | 9.76 | value: +45% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 5% | 7% | 19.84 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 25' | 🟨 | Haspolat Dogucan · SBV Excelsior |
| 31' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 43' | 🟨 | Herve Matthys · SBV Excelsior |
| 44' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Jerdy Schouten · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 29 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 5 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 832.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1433.30 | 1848.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.69 | 32.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 2.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.96 |
| league points | 12.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.79 |
| state index | -0.72 | 2.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |