← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.84 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 25% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nick Kuipers · ADO Den Haag |
| 64' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1744.00 | 1532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1486.79 | 1638.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.06 | -38.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |