← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 42% | 52% | 2.29 | value: +19% |
| FC Utrecht win | 29% | 24% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 58' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 64' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Vitesse |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lukas Görtler · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 223.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1559.99 | 1615.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.73 | 31.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |