← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 49% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 24% | 26% | 3.96 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 16' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · PEC Zwolle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 526.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1466.12 | 1488.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.18 | -18.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 23.02 | 24.84 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |